The dilemma of silicon wafer supply and demand imbalance has not yet found an effective balance method, and manufacturers will inevitably withdraw. Silicon chips are still the main target for maintaining cost operations, but the situation with upstream chips is relatively stable. Demand in the end market continues to heat up, perhaps giving the battery and component manufacturers a glimmer of hope. As the Chinese government’s policy directives are expected to push the market warmer, the already weak demand has gradually stabilized. I believe that in the next few weeks, this will be a getting better momentum.

Wafer

This week, only the price of overseas monocrystalline silicon wafers was driven by demand. Polysilicon wafer manufacturers have made price stability a major indicator and are no longer sold at prices below the cost of cash. Regarding utilization, regardless of single polysilicon, first-line manufacturers still have a large advantage, and small and medium-sized factories are more difficult under the double squeeze of price and capacity. At present, domestic monocrystalline prices remain at 3~3.10RMB / Pc, polycrystalline prices remain at 2.07~2.15RMB / Pc, and black silicon product prices remain unchanged at 2.2RMB / Pc. The single crystal in the overseas market is maintained at 0.38~0.390USD / Pc, the polycrystalline price is maintained at 0.254~0.269USD / Pc, and the price of black silicon product is slightly decreased to 0.305USD / Pc.

Silicon material

This week, silicon material prices are still running at low levels. Compared with second- and third-line small factories, first-line factories can slightly support prices. The newly opened low-cost production line has not yet reached full mass production, so there is a certain difference in supply and demand of cost calculation, which indirectly affects downstream purchase intention and price acceptance. After the low-cost production line is opened and the high-cost production line exits, it is estimated that the cost perception of the buyer and the seller will be the same, but the demand side still has the final price decision, because if there is no strong demand, the price is lower. To no avail. At present, the price of domestic polycrystalline materials is 73~82 yuan/KG, the average price is reduced to 75RMB / KG, the price of single crystal materials is 80~84RMB / KG, and the average price is reduced to 82RMB / KG. Overseas prices remain unchanged at 9~10.2USD / KG.

Components

The trading price of the parts market this week was basically flat. Although the polycrystalline products are quoted but the actual transaction is not much, the overall price is flat or even small. The turnover of single crystal components is even more intense, but it cannot push up the price due to the lack of urgent orders.

At present, China’s domestic polycrystalline (270W~275W) is maintained at 1.78~1.85RMB / W, the average price is reduced to 1.80RMB / W, and the high efficiency polycrystalline (280~285W) is maintained at 1.80~1.93RMB / W. In general, the price of single crystal (290~295W) is maintained at 1.83~1.96RMB / W, the high efficiency single crystal (300~305W) is kept at 2.12~2.20RMB / W, and the high efficiency single crystal crystal (> 310W) is kept at 2.20. RMB / W. above price. The average polycrystalline price in overseas markets was lowered to 0.215~0.270USD / W, the average price was lowered to 0.216USD / W, and the high-efficiency polycrystalline correction range was 0.220~0.275USD / W. Usually, the single crystal remained at 0.2420.360 USD / W, High-efficiency single crystals are maintained at 0.265 to 0.390 USD / W.

Cell

This week, the battery market is still focused on high-efficiency products, while domestic and foreign single-crystal PERC batteries are out of stock. Polycrystalline products have been able to stabilize prices due to increased demand. The visibility of global demand continues to rise and it is estimated that December will be better than November.

At present, the price of ordinary polycrystalline batteries in mainland China is 0.8~0.85RMB / W, the average single crystal price is 1~1.06RMB / W, the high efficiency single crystal is 1.12~1.17RMB / W, and the high efficiency single crystal (> 21.5% )slightly increased. Increase to 1.2~1.25RMB / W, the average price is raised to 1.22RMB / W. The price of double-sided battery is raised to 1.25~1.30RMB / W. The foreign general polycrystal is kept at 0.095~0.130USD / W, the general single crystal is kept at 0.121~0.129USD / W, high-efficiency single crystal is adjusted to 0.145~0.165USD / W, and the ultra-high efficiency single crystal (> 21.5%) is raised to 0.16~0.172USD / W.

China has become the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic glass. In addition to meeting the domestic market demand, China’s photovoltaic glass exports have also grown rapidly.

According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in January 2016, China’s photovoltaic glass exports to Japan, the United States, Europe and other international markets, the number of about 129,900 tons, accounting for about one-third of total photovoltaic glass production, 7.74 year-on-year. If PV glass is exported in the form of PV modules, the export volume will far exceed this ratio. At the same time, China’s PV glass imports in January 2016 were only 934 tons. According to statistics, in 2015, 93% of the world’s crystalline silicon battery modules use photovoltaic glass produced in China.

From the installed capacity of PV modules, from 2010 to 2014, the global PV module installed capacity grew at an annual rate of 28.2%, from 17.2GW in 2010 to 46.5GW in 2014. In the same period, the compound annual growth rate for China’s PV modules was 106.9%, from 0.6GW in 2010 to 10.6GW in 2014.

In terms of PV module production, from 2010 to 2014, the global compound annual growth rate of PV module production was 21.1%, from 22.3GW in 2010 to 48.1GW in 2014. In the same period, China’s PV module production increased from 10.8GW in 2010, and in 2014 it was 34.5GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.7%.

As mentioned above, as the global installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation and the annual production of photovoltaic modules continue to grow steadily in the coming years, the demand for photovoltaic glass will continue to grow.

With its reliability, safety, versatility and resource adequacy, photovoltaic energy has become one of the world’s most recognized renewable energy sources in the context of accelerating global consumption of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Become the main pillar of the future global power supply. In the decade from 2005 to 2015, the annual compound growth rate of global PV installed capacity was about 42%. According to the prediction of the Joint Research Center of the European and American Commissions, by 2050, photovoltaic power generation will account for 25% of global power generation, to 2100. This ratio may increase to 64%.

Among the exports of all single crystal modules in the first three quarters of 2018, the total export volume was 300W, 345W and 340W, with exports of 1,241 MW, 1,072 MW and 955 MW respectively. The top five exporters of these three categories are as follows:

In the Middle East and Australia, Jinko Energy has received orders for parts for large power plants, supplying 340-345W single crystal components, enabling Jingke to become the export champion of 300/340 / 345W single crystal components in 2018, followed by Longji. In addition, due to the use of single crystal modules in large power stations in the Middle East and Australia, the market share of single crystals in these two markets in 2018 is higher than the global average. In the parts exported to the Middle East by China in June this year, the proportion of single crystals was as high as 66.6%.

Another market worthy of attention is Europe. The European market is entering a recovery phase. After the MIP ended on September 3, China’s monthly exports to Europe increased by 34%, mainly due to the increase in exports of monocrystalline silicon modules.

In addition, since the two major markets in Europe and the United States were affected by trade barriers in the past, many components were provided by overseas production capacity, and China’s component exports could not fully reflect the market’s single polycrystalline market. China’s wafer production capacity accounts for more than 97% of global production. Therefore, analyzing the export sales of Chinese silicon wafers can more accurately determine the proportion change of the single polysilicon market.

According to EnergyTrend, China’s wafer exports have declined slightly since 2018, but the proportion of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been on the rise since 2Q18, close to 50% and is expected to rise. The market share of the crystal market is about to stabilize, and the single crystal may reverse its market share by the end of 2020.

Polyester, also known as polyester fiber. The characteristics are good gas permeability and moisture wicking, as well as strong acid and alkali resistance and UV resistance.

Nylon, also known as polyamide fiber. The advantages are high strength, high wear resistance, high chemical resistance, good deformation resistance and aging resistance; the disadvantage is that the hand feel is hard.

The difference between polyester material and nylon material:

Polyester (polyester fiber)

1. Mechanical properties have high breaking strength

The elongation is large; the initial mold height is high; the elastic recovery is good, the fabric is stiff, the wear resistance is good, and the dimensional stability is good.

2. Optical properties

Good light fastness, second only to nylon

3. Thermal properties

Melting height 255-265 ° C; good heat resistance and thermal stability

4. Acid resistance is not resistant to alkali, not mildew

5. Hygroscopic dyeing is poor

W = 0.4%; normal temperature dyeing cannot be used. Easy to get static electricity, poor stain resistance

6. Density: 138g/cm3

nylon

Mechanical properties

The breaking strength and buckling strength are higher and the elongation is larger; the initial lifting mold is lower and the breaking work is larger; the elasticity is good, the wear resistance is good, and the shape retaining property and the straightness of the fabric are poor.

2. Poor light resistance

3. Thermal properties

Poor heat resistance; safe use temperature: less than 93 ° C (nylon 6), less than 130 ° C (nylon 66); melting point: 215 ° C (nylon 6), 250 ° C (nylon 66)

4. Alkali resistance and acid resistance

5. Hygroscopic dyeability W = 4.5%, better than polyester

6. Small density: 1.14 g/cm3

In December, the order price of silicon materials, whether it is a silicon material factory or a silicon wafer factory, is not reconciled, and the overall price continues to stalemate. From the unexpected rise of downstream polycrystalline batteries, the price of silicon wafers should keep rising in December, while the demand for single crystals is stable, but the overseas trade price is slightly lower than domestic prices. The concentration of the single crystal is higher and the subsequent supply will continue to increase. It is estimated that the price of intensive materials will be reduced by a few dollars in December. The difference between dense materials and broccoli will be further reduced. At present, the price of overseas parts has remained stable. However, the transaction has increased significantly. This indicates that there was no further decline or even a rebound in market demand in December. The transaction price is still between 8.3-9 US dollars per kilogram.

Component price

Although the price of battery chips has risen and the cost of components has increased, the price of components at the end of this year has been agreed and will not change in the short term. Demand for front-runners will be delayed in January next year, as well as inventory trends before the Lunar New Year, orders should not be too deserted. However, demand is expected to weaken significantly after the Lunar New Year. From the recent quotation of parts factories, the price of parts will continue to decline slowly in the first quarter of next year.

Battery price

The battery tablet began negotiations on the price of December this week. Judging from the current quotation, in addition to the traditional single crystal battery, the price of various battery chips has almost completely increased.

Until December, PERC batteries are still in short supply. In the case that it is difficult to find at home and abroad, the price of more than 21.5% double-sided single crystal PERC battery rose from 1.25 yuan per watt in November to 1.28 yuan, an increase of 21.5% or more. The single-sided single-crystal PERC battery price increase is more obvious, from 1.2 yuan per watt to 1.25 yuan. Although the price of the PERC battery has risen significantly, the actual transaction price is still lingering between the buyer and the seller, and has not yet reached the quotation level. In the case that high-efficiency battery chips are still scarce, it is expected that follow-up will be sold at the quotation level.

Overseas prices have also risen together. Especially at the end of the Taiwan market, the demand for popular goods is very strong. The price of a single crystal PERC battery is 0.168-0.172 US dollars per watt.

Not only is the demand for single crystal PERC hot, but the supply is slightly tight in the near term due to the continuous decline in operating rates. Battery manufacturers increased the price of polycrystalline batteries in December. Domestic prices have reached 0.88 yuan per watt, overseas prices. Then hope to rise to more than $0.107. At present, the component factory has not accepted the rise of polycrystalline batteries, and the actual situation in the next few days is expected to be clearer.

Wafer price

This week, the price of overseas wafers continued to decline due to the exchange rate. At present, the order price is mostly between 0.265 and 0.268 US dollars per piece. However, due to the stable overall demand, the price at the beginning of December is further limited. On the other hand, due to the growing demand for polysilicon, coupled with rising battery prices, silicon wafers are also eager to raise prices, but the current supply and demand balance is not sufficient considering the final operating rate of silicon wafers. In this case, once the price increase may stimulate some production to increase again, the high and low prices may rise in the short term, but the overall average price should not increase significantly. At present, the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers is good, and the price in December has remained basically unchanged.